The best of times, the worst of times: Dolphin-palooza 2011; Earth Day; and the First Anniversary of the BP Spill

This is a big week for the planet. Earth Day and the one-year anniversary of  the BP/Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  It will take years to assess the damage from the Gulf spill economically, societally and ecologically. A recent paper in Conservation Letters led by Oceans Initiative’s Dr Rob Williams with the help of many co-authors, suggests that the dead dolphins washing up on the beach are really just the tip of the iceberg.   The team evaluated historic carcass recovery rates in two ways.  One indicated that there could be as many as 50 dolphins that were scavenged, drifted offshore or sank to the bottom of the ocean for every dolphin carcass recovered on the beaches. The other method yielded an even scarier ratio of 250:1.

Photo: Associated Free Press

Dead whales and dolphins on beaches represent only the damage we can see. Killer whale biologist and director of the North Gulf Oceanic Society, Craig Matkin, notes that a genetically distinct pod of killer whales, the AT1pod, exposed to oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill, have yet to reproduce 22 years later. Since no calves have been born, the unique killer whale pod will be lost.  However grim the statistics, scientists are able to make these calculations thanks to years of careful research on whale and dolphin populations.  Closer to home, imagine how warped our perception of killer whale populations in BC and Washington would be if all the information we had available came from the occasional carcass that washes ashore, instead of conducting annual counts of the entire population, which is what our colleagues at Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the Center for Whale Research do.  There is simply no substitute for the hands-on, hard work of long-term monitoring of cetacean populations.

But many cetacean populations are still under the radar.  You may be surprised to find that for many whale and dolphin species, we still lack basic information on how many  there are and how healthy the populations are.  In 2004, we partnered with Raincoast Conservation to design and conduct systematic surveys to estimate abundance of 6 cetacean species in BC, and we’ve seen first-hand that it is possible to contribute important baseline science while working on a modest budget.

At Oceans Initiative, our aim is to identify data gaps and make it a priority to fill the ones we can afford to (and are most qualified) to fill. Earth Day prompts us to reflect on the contribution we are making to marine research and conservation, but our goal, every day, is to identify modest contributions that we can make to improve the quantity and quality of science available to make decisions that sustain the BC marine environment.

Our recent dolphin ‘spring fling’ {AKA Dolphin-Palooza 2011} is a good example.  With 10 days and a lot of help from our friends and neighbours, we collected gigabytes of photo-identification and acoustic data on Pacific white-sided dolphins in BC, at the extreme south end of the Great Bear Rainforest. Because we are building on Alexandra Morton’s 20 years’ worth of meticulous photographs and observations, we expect that soon we will have a good estimate of abundance, survival and a glimpse into Pacific white-sided dolphin population structure. These important pieces of information form the basis on which sound management decisions can be made. The kind of baseline information we are collecting is essential, whether we are dealing with day-to-day conservation and management decisions or (heaven forbid) assessing damage and supporting recovery if a catastrophe on the scale of the BP oil spill should ever occur in Pacific Northwest waters. The science we do is not the most glamourous kind of field work, but it is necessary.  And we love what we do.

Pacific white-sided dolphins leaping in Knight Inlet, British Columbia

Things that go bump in the night

A killer whale surfs the bow wave a cruise ship in Johnstone Strait.

When ships strike whales, the whale generally loses. People must wonder why scientists treat this issue like it’s some great mystery that’s difficult to quantify and even more difficult to solve.  After all, hitting a large whale must be like hitting a moose with your car.  Right?  So fixing the problem must be as easy as searching the shipping lanes for marine roadkill, and making shippers slow down.

This Pacific white-sided dolphin has a huge gouge near its tail flukes. Was it caused by fishing gear, a propeller, or something else?

In fact, assessing the extent of ship strike mortality is incredibly challenging.  Sure, vessel operators may underreport whale strikes, but in fairness, with very large, fast ships, collisions may go entirely unnoticed.  A typical cruise ship may weigh 50,000 tonnes.  A typical fin whale may weigh 50 tonnes.  Yes, that’s a lot of whale, but it could be analogous to hitting a 2kg animal with a 2,000 kg SUV.  Except that the ship strike can happen in a lurching, heaving sea, with the ship moving and whale surfacing and diving in three dimensions.  And when whales die, whether from human or natural causes, only a trivial fraction of carcasses are recovered. To us, it’s a wonder that this issue is reported as frequently as it is, given all the odds against detecting the problem in the first place.

Fortunately for the whales, this issue is receiving a lot of scientific and management attention.  Off the east coast of the US, scientists have built a convincing case that the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale population cannot withstand the death of even one individual annually from ship strikes, so tremendous bilateral efforts have been made to separate ships from whales in important habitats in both the US and Canada.  Recently, regulators have started issuing speeding tickets for mariners who violate the rules designed to protect the whales.

In 2010, we partnered with Dr Patrick O’Hara (Environment Canada) to conduct a risk assessment to identify where ship strikes may be an issue for fin, humpback and killer whales in BC.  A risk assessment involves two main components:  (a) trying to estimate the likelihood of a thing (usually bad) occurring; and (b) predicting the consequences if it does.  Put simply, we mapped where ships and whales are likely to overlap.

This overlap analysis actually tells us three things:

1. oil spill risk:  Shipping intensity seems like a good proxy to use for oil spill risk.  The probability of an oil spill happening is low, but if it happens, it can be catastrophic to individuals and populations.

2. ship strike:  again, the probability of it happening is low, but it can be fatal.  And if it happens often enough, it can be damaging to populations.  Our work is showing that fin whales in BC cannot tolerate the removal of more than a few individuals per year.  Given the occasional, high-profile examples of ship strikes involving fin whales worldwide, we wonder how much of an underestimate these reports represent.

Predicted areas of overlap between shipping activity and humpback whales in BC (from Williams & O'Hara 2010).

3. chronic ocean noise:  high noise levels are a sure thing in a shipping lane, and we’re just beginning to quantify the effects on marine mammal habitats, individuals and populations.  Our colleagues are documenting similar effects of noise on non-mammalian wildlife like squid and fish.  So, we believe that even if a ship doesn’t strike a whale, this “overlap analysis” can still tell us where important whale habitats are likely to be degraded by chronic ocean noise.  Our work has shown that repeated disturbance by boats can disrupt the feeding behaviour of killer whales, and our new research (with Cornell University’s Bioacoustics Research Program and the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews) is modelling how much acoustic space whales lose from shipping noise.

TOP TEN IN TWENTY-TEN

Marine conservation highlights:  2010

1. A protected area for killer whales?
We kicked the year off with a paper published by Erin, Rob and Dr Dawn Noren in Animal Conservation proposing a Marine Protected Area for southern resident killer whales.  It was profiled on NPR and in dozens of news stories.  Our scientific advice fits nicely with the recovery objectives specified by Canada and the US, but uses a simple priority-setting approach:  give the whales a quiet place to eat.

2. Whales, salmon and ocean noise
Rob spent 6 months as Canada-US Fulbright Research Chair at University of Washington to explore transboundary issues in marine conservation, using killer whales, salmon and ocean noise as themes.  It was a hugely productive fellowship, and we loved hosting an efficient, collaborative workshop to estimate how much salmon it costs to feed southern resident killer whales.  We miss Seattle – not only because of Molly Moon’s Grey Salted Caramel ice cream.

3. Pacific white-sided dolphins
So, come here often? Erin’s dolphin study leaped ahead this year with support from SeaDoc to encourage wider contributions to the photo-identification catalogue that our mentor,Alexandra Morton, initiated in the 1980s and maintained for more than 20 years.  Are the dolphins of the Broughton Archipelago cosmopolitan, or do they like to stick close to home?  Our partnership with SeaDoc will help us find out if the dolphins we see are a unique population or if they regularly move between BC and Washington State.  We collected more photographs of dolphins, which will allow us to estimate abundance and track population health.  We recorded dolphin calls and tweets, and saw newborn calves in the study area!  Want to be part of the fun?  Please send us your dolphin ID photos!

4. Collecting killer whale poop
Yup.  Sounds messy and weird.  But it’s actually a neat, non-invasive way to evaluate whether whales are stressed out by noise, and whether they’re finding enough to eat.  We’ve initiated a proof-of-concept study, and are excited about the opportunity to partner with Prof Sam Wasser and his team in Conservation Biology at University of Washington.

5. Mapping where ships might collide with whales
When ships strike whales, it is often fatal.  Rob and Dr Patrick O’Hara at Environment Canada authored a paper to predict and identify where these collisions are most likely to occur.  Rob presented the work at the International Whaling Commission’s Scientific Committee meeting in Morocco and was invited by NOAA to offer scientific advice on vessel strikes to protect blue whales in Santa Barbara Channel, California.

6. Ocean noise measuring and mapping
Pop-up study 3.0!  Yes, our chronic ocean noise study has grown into a trilogy.  This year, we deployed and retrieved 6 hydrophones, our most ever! Thanks for field support from Hawk Bay, Straitwatch, Ocean Rose Coastal Adventures, Orcalab, Salmon Coast Field Station, Silver King Ventures and our friends at Cornell. This brings our total to 12 autonomous hydrophones sent to the bottom of the sea, called back and sent safely home to New York.  Wow!  Mixing saltwater and electronics, on purpose.  The “on purpose” part is new for us.  Soon we can say which parts of BC coastal waters are quiet, loud or somewhere in between.  Whales and dolphins need a quiet ocean to find food and mates.  Our work with Cornell allows us to model how much acoustic habitat whales currently lose due to shipping noise; and how much more would be lost if oil tankers started using Douglas Channel.  Next, we plan to screen the tens of thousands of hours of recordings for whale and dolphin calls (want some boat noise for your iPod?).  In 2011, we are integrating our acoustic work into multi-stakeholder marine spatial planning exercises to ensure that marine protected areas can be built with a quiet ocean in mind.  We’re calling it our Quiet Ocean Campaign.

7. Humpback whales, oil tankers and critical habitat
Like most British Columbians, we are concerned about proposals to build an oil pipeline from the Alberta Tarsands to the Great Bear Rainforest.  We’re thrilled to be working withCetacealab and the Gitga’at Nation to estimate how many humpback whales use the waters along the proposed oil tanker route.  This area has been proposed as critical habitat.  Janie Wray, Hermann Meuter and Chris Picard have been collecting humpback whale data for years, and it was great fun to apply the skills we’ve been honing on our dolphin study to a valuable humpback whale study that has immediate conservation applications.

8. Sharks in British Columbia.
Did you know there tens of thousand of sharks in BC?  We didn’t either. But as January Jones says, ‘we shouldn’t be scared of sharks, we should be scared for them’.  Rob, with shark-experts, Tom Okey, Scott Wallace and Vince Gallucci reveal the goods in their new shark paper. Or, you can read all about it in this Vancouver Sun Shark week article.

9. Launching our website (www.oceansinitiative.org)
We resolve to keep in touch in 2011 a little better than we did in 2010.  Thanks to Sandy Buckley for the great logos, and Sarah Bray and her team for our outstanding new site.  The flexible WordPress system allows us to update periodically, and add content like photos, video and audio that we can’t publish in a traditional print journal.  If you want to receive updates from us auto-magically, please enter your e-mail address in the “Get In Touch” box here. If not, don’t worry:  we won’t spam you.

10. From the ‘Home of the killer whale’ to the ‘Home of Golf’
Pass the haggis. All of us (Erin, Wishart-the-dog and Rob) are ending the year in St Andrews, Scotland, where Erin is writing her PhD thesis on Pacific white-sided dolphins, and Rob is analyzing our acoustic data as part of his top-ranked Marie Curie Fellowship at the University of St Andrews, Sea Mammal Research Unit.  Yes, there are dolphins and killer whales in Scotland, and also some gifted scientists to offer advice and ideas.

Please check out our site for frequent updates in 2011.  We are happy and busy in Scotland with data analysis and writing, but part of us is still at home in BC.  Fortunately, with our spiffy charitable account at Aeroplan, we’re raising enough donations of Aeroplan frequent-flyer miles to come home to the Pacific Northwest for an amazing, cost-effective dolphin field season this spring.  (We’re working on offsetting our carbon footprint, too.)  We hope to see you in BC this spring.

Thanks again for working with us.  It’s been a tremendous year, and we’re excited about what 2011 will bring.  We wish you all the best for a happy and healthy and productive new year.

Oceans Initiative
Erin and Rob


LEAPS: Lagenorhynchus Ecology, Abundance and Population Status

This study, led by Erin Ashe as part of her PhD project at the University of St Andrews, assesses the health of the population of Pacific white-sided dolphins found in the Broughton Archipelago, BC and nearby waters.  This is a demographic study, which means that it uses statistical methods to study a population. The statistics are important, because only the most catastrophic problems are apparent to casual observation, and the goal of conservation biology is to identify whether there are human-caused problems, and if so, mitigate them well before they reach catastrophic levels.

Come to BC and spend some time here.  If you’re lucky, you will see groups of hundreds of dolphins.  When people see large groups of dolphins, the obvious, superficial interpretation is that the population(s) must be thriving.  But that’s not always the case.  Remember when we first started hearing about “dolphin-safe tuna”?  Those measures were implemented because managers were concerned about levels of bycatch of other dolphin species in tuna fisheries.  Spinner dolphins are designated as depleted under the US Marine Mammal Protection Act, even though there are about 613,000 spinner dolphins.  That’s a lot of dolphins, but it is less than half of what there were before huge bycatch rates in tuna fisheries.  For BC’s dolphins, yes, we see hundreds of dolphins in a group.  And don’t get me wrong.  Abundance is a hugely important parameter to measure, and a lot of our time is spent producing good estimates of wildlife abundance:  it is an essential number to have if you want to know how much fish the dolphins need to thrive, or to estimate the probability that the population will go extinct.  But it is tough to detect anything but the most catastrophic population crash from the rough abundance estimates we are likely to produce for these dolphins.  The population could still be declining, and no one could “eyeball” a decline from 900 to 850 to 800 dolphins, or even measure it will all the uncertainty and variability in our estimates.  Fortunately, there are other reliable ways to measure population health.

The method we’re using is to estimate survivorship, which is the probability of an individual surviving from one year to the next.  If this number proves to be lower than what we expect from other, healthy dolphin populations, then we need to look at factors affecting survivorship.  If the number comes out to be typical of dolphin survivorship, then management actions are not necessary.

We’re off to a tremendous start.  Our good friend and neighbour, Alexandra Morton, has been collecting photographs of the dolphins’ unique markings and dorsal fin shapes since the dolphins returned to the area in the late 1980’s.  Alexandra’s exhaustive field efforts and meticulous work has produced records that include thousands of dolphins.  With this extensive catalogue and my photographic effort over the last 5 years, we now have the opportunity to learn essential information about Pacific white-sided dolphins and their populations.

Using photographs of unique natural markings on the dorsal fin and sometimes body, we create a record of encounters, an ‘encounter history’ that provides information about each time you saw that dolphin.  Using mark-recapture statistics, you can estimate how many there are, the likelihood that an adult dolphin will survive from year to year and lots of other neat things.  This helps make decisions about whether we need to take action to confer additional protections from human threats.

Imagine it as a trip to the doctor’s office.  The doctor weighs you, takes your blood pressure, and maybe takes some samples.  Then she compares your “status” to what she’d like to see in a healthy patient.  In much the same way, we’re identifying whether dolphins in BC are surviving as long as we’d like to see.  If not, then we’ll do some follow-up work to identify why, and whether we can do anything about it.  Sure, dolphins are cool.  We like them a lot.  But we also like the scientific challenge of studying this species.  We are only seeing a small fraction of individuals for brief periods at the surface.  It’s forcing us to develop new mathematical tools, and spend lots of time in the field, and everything we learn feels new and exciting.

One fish, two fish, red fish, blue fish

When groups are small and individuals are distinctive, you may be able to count every individual in the group. When populations are big, or individuals are not distinctive, you need to estimate abundance from samples.

Some of the most pressing questions in conservation biology concern the health of populations.  “Population” refers to all the animals of a given species that live in the same geographical area and that form an interbreeding community.  Should a species be listed under some environmental legislation?  Should we allow hunts of healthy populations?  Is a species likely to go extinct?  These fundamental questions that inspire us rely on having good information about how many animals are in an area, and whether that number is going up or down.  We specialise in low-cost and creative methods to provide that information.

But why should anyone care that there are 9,120 harbour porpoise in BC waters?

Well, this number is a crucial piece of information to have if you want to assess whether the population can withstand the level of porpoise bycatch in fishing nets.  In some countries, this number takes on legal ramifications — if fishing practices are causing more bycatch than the population can withstand, it will lead to management actions to change fishing practices, reduce bycatch, or reduce fishing pressure altogether in extreme cases.

Still, we know that these numbers seem cold.  Jane Goodall’s chimps were named for a reason.  Actually, for lots of reasons.  We don’t want to know about thousands of whales.  People connect to individuals.  Moby Dick.  Flipper.  Shamu.  Willy (Keiko).  We get it, and we like studying individual whales and dolphins.  But a population is just a collection of individuals.  We study individuals to understand how populations are doing; and we have done coarse studies that estimate abundance overall, to guide future studies on the health of individuals.  The point is:  we use a lot of math in our research, but these animals are not just numbers to us.

We have expertise in the two most widely used methods to estimate abundance of marine wildlife:  mark-recapture statistics; and line transect surveys.   Mark-recapture studies take samples of individually distinctive animals, revisit an area and sample again, and use these samples to make inference about how many animals there must be in the population for us to see the individuals we do.  If you can track individuals through time, you can estimate other population parameters than just abundance:  you can also estimate survivorship, trends in abundance, reproductive rate, social structure and movement patterns.  We have conducted mark-recapture studies on humpback and killer whales, but the focus of our mark-recapture work is on Pacific white-sided dolphins.  Read more about the dolphins here:

Line transect surveys don’t require us to know anything about individual identity.  Instead, we estimate density of whales (or sharks: check this out).  The math is a bit nerdy, but we like it a lot.  We’ve contributed to the methods by testing new methods for distance estimation, survey design for geographically complex regions, abundance estimation from cheap platforms of opportunity, and have field-tested methods to estimate abundance of rare species.  We’re not mathematicians, but we like working with them on our most challenging studies, like Amazon river dolphins, Antarctic minke whales in the sea ice, or marine mammals in the convoluted fjords of BC’s Great Bear Rainforest.  Read more about the field on our colleagues’ page.